Forum:2011-12 Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclone season/3
South-West Indian Ocean 92S.INVEST 92S.INVEST Another one near 90S.--Cy10-- 01:01, January 30, 2012 (UTC) Gone.--Cy10-- 20:21, February 4, 2012 (UTC) 13S.HILWA TCFA.--Cy10-- 02:07, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical storm 13S Now a tropical storm by JTWC, though it hasn't been named Hilwa yet. Probrably will be later today. Ryan1000 10:36, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10 Now a TD. —''12R. '' 12:30, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Well it is now getting less organized as we speak and it has attained peak intensity. Maybe the JTWC were wrong to take it up to C2? —''12R. '' 19:43, February 14, 2012 (UTC) May intensify later I would not take it out so fast as it may intensify later.Allanjeffs 23:57, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Some significant change in the forecast. Was meant to weaken into a disturbance and stay that for the whole existence, however, it is now expected to strengthen into a moderate tropical storm, then weaken back into a tropical depression, then strengthen back into a tropical storm with 40 kt. —''12R. '' 11:24, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 10 And La Reunion have returned to the previous forecast, and only peaked at 30 kt. —''12R. '' 02:09, February 16, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10 (2nd time) And we have a TD again, looks like this thing will be going on an intensity roller coaster. —''12R. '' 10:56, February 16, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 10 (2nd time) Yes it is..--Cy10-- 02:07, February 19, 2012 (UTC) At one point, TD 10 was forecast to be a hurricane, and now it doesn't look like we'll get anything at all, not at this rate, at least. Fixed the header BTW (it was suposed to be size 4). Ryan1000 05:10, February 19, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10 (3rd time) Now forecast to become a MTS. —''12R. '' 12:32, February 20, 2012 (UTC) At least we reach the H letter with this system how many more letter could we have. we will seeAllanjeffs 21:48, February 20, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Hilwa Now named. —''12R. '' 16:23, February 20, 2012 (UTC) : Finally.--Cy10-- 17:24, February 20, 2012 (UTC) :: It won't do much, but it formed, at least. Ryan1000 18:00, February 20, 2012 (UTC) Extratropical Depression Ex-Hilwa In and out.--Cy10-- 01:41, February 23, 2012 (UTC) Still a depression so it ain't out yet. —''12R. '' 08:38, February 23, 2012 (UTC)\ Remnants of Hilwa Now gone.--Cy10-- 13:15, February 24, 2012 (UTC) 91S.INVEST AOI: Eastern area of AoR RSMC saying this low will develop into a tropical depression (I'm sure a tropical storm). —''12R. '' 22:37, February 21, 2012 (UTC) 91S.INVEST Invested! —''12R. '' 15:37, February 24, 2012 (UTC) TCFA alert.--Cy10-- 06:03, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Gone.—Cy10 04:02, February 29, 2012 (UTC) 15S.NONAME AOI: North of the Mascareignes islands RSMC saying this low will develop into a tropical depression (I'm sure a tropical cyclone). Have a look here. —''12R. '' 22:37, February 21, 2012 (UTC) If that is true we will have two tropical cyclones in this basin next week if that is true we will have Irina and Joni with us.Allanjeffs 00:09, February 22, 2012 (UTC) Looks like this one has the potential to become Irina or even Joni. Which ever low develops into a named storm first. By the way, if we get to Joni, we'd probably slow a bit down in activity in March. This season will most likely get to the K or L storm, if more show up. 01:01, February 22, 2012 (UTC) By the time it makes landfall, the system will just stay there because of the mountains. The GFS forecasting over 350 mm of rain to fall over central Madagascar. However, a few days later it begins to move into the Mozambique Channel and strengthens quite a bit. It'll then make landfall as a tropical cyclone on Mozambique. Of course this is subject to change. —''12R. '' 08:26, February 22, 2012 (UTC) : At worst, this storm could be a re-Hudah and cause signifigant destruction in both Madagascar and Mozambique, but there is also a chance it could not develop past category 1 or 2. It's very large though, so rainfall could be a problem for the folks in Madagascar and Mozambique from this storm. They're still reeling from Giovanna's destruction, but I don't think this storm (future Irina) will be as strong as Giovanna when it does impact Madagascar. Ryan1000 14:41, February 22, 2012 (UTC) ECMWF ensemble System and Most of the available deterministic NWP models suggest that 2 lows may form at the end of the week within the ITCZ; one to the North-East of the Mascareignes islands and the other one over the far east of our area of responsibility. ITCZ outlook from RSMC La Reunion. —''12R. '' 17:01, February 22, 2012 (UTC) 90S.INVEST Now invested! Getting exciting! —''12R. '' 19:07, February 23, 2012 (UTC) I think it's fair to say we will get something out of this now, but I can't really tell how strong it will get. Ryan1000 21:11, February 23, 2012 (UTC) I think this will become a severe tropical storm. Andrew444TalkBlog 20:36, February 25, 2012 (UTC) The models really like this one. They explode it in the next few days and keep it out to sea. The only areas that may need to keep an eye on this are Mauritius and Reunion. Ryan1000 22:53, February 26, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 12 Only meant to strengthen into a MTS just now... —''12R. '' 02:24, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 12 Oh well... our hopes of it becoming a ITC are very slim now.. —''12R. '' 12:32, February 29, 2012 (UTC) I would expect cat 2 or cat 3 at most, but yeah, we aren't seeing a cat 4 or stronger storm from this one now. It most likely missed it's chance. Ryan1000 14:08, February 29, 2012 (UTC) Maybe but the only thing we can expect from the tropics is the unexpect it so we never can be sure of things.Allanjeffs 01:42, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Although it may not become strong, there actually is a (small) chance this storm could head south of Mauritius and Reunion and hit southern Madagascar as a cat 1, though it would otherwise stay out to sea. However, GFS sees a monster storm coming from behind this disturbance in the next 3-4 days and smashing apart Mauritius and Reunion. That's not a good vision. Ryan1000 14:47, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Disturbance 12 (2nd time) Back down... in 24 hrs, it should be back up —''12R. '' 22:06, March 1, 2012 (UTC) Zone of Disturbed Weather 12 Well, I can tell you this will not become a C1 —''12R. '' 12:33, March 2, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 12 Ah well. —''12R. '' 14:05, March 4, 2012 (UTC) Australian Region 16S.KOJI AoI: East of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands Models really liking this one, as well as BoM. —''12R. '' 18:34, March 4, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Low 15U Should be Koji and Joni. —''12R. '' 08:24, March 7, 2012 (UTC) This is strenghtening could peak at cat 2 or 3 if it has luck it will reach cat 4.Allanjeffs 00:56, March 8, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Koji Now named Koji.—Cy10 02:40, March 8, 2012 (UTC) Severe Tropical Storm Koji-Joni Now named Joni by RSMC Reunion. —''12R. '' 12:50, March 8, 2012 (UTC) Like the two name it have it really has a shot to become a cat 3.Allanjeffs 17:31, March 8, 2012 (UTC) : I think this will probrably be the last time a storm will be given a hyphenated two-name. At the start of the 2011-12 season, the WMO stated this would be the last year when a storm would reccieve two names crossing from the Australian region to the SWIO. Starting in 2012-13, storms will keep their names when crossing from the Australian region to the SWIO. Still, since this will probrably be the last time we'll see this, we might as well cherish it while it lasts. Ryan1000 18:08, March 8, 2012 (UTC) ::Pretty cool to see a hyphenated name. Like Ryan said, it's likely to be one of the last to receive one. Also, it's looking pretty nice atm. Yqt1001 00:40, March 9, 2012 (UTC) :::I'd be surprised if it doesn't at least become a C1, even though it likely will remain at sea. Ryan1000 03:01, March 9, 2012 (UTC) ::::This is a fun event! Following a two-name storm. I think Joni will have a C3 peak intensity. Andrew444TalkBlog 03:48, March 10, 2012 (UTC) :It'll probrably be a pretty strong storm, but at least it won't affect land. It's expected to turn farther south by this Sunday and Monday, so it better get on with it if it wants to become a major cyclone. Ryan1000 09:16, March 10, 2012 (UTC) ::It's starting to power down now, per the latest data from RSMC Reunion, so I think it's time we started saying goodbye to Koji-Joni. It will certainly be a storm i'll never forget. Ryan1000 14:20, March 11, 2012 (UTC) ::Really??? I thought that you weren`t excited on this one.My bad.Allanjeffs 16:14, March 11, 2012 (UTC) Moderate Tropical Storm Koji-Joni Whoot! —''12R. '' 16:31, March 11, 2012 (UTC) Nailed it. I knew it would power down sooner or later. It won't come anywhere near land and it very well could be the last two-name storm i'll ever see. Ryan1000 22:22, March 11, 2012 (UTC) Extratropical Depression Koji-Joni Now extratropical.—Cy10 11:26, March 12, 2012 (UTC) 94P.INVEST AoI: Over Brisbane A disturbance by SAB, currently T1.5. —''12R. '' 23:39, March 4, 2012 (UTC) 94P.INVEST Now invested... quite surprised with this since thunderstorm activity is decreasing. —''12R. '' 12:28, March 5, 2012 (UTC) :I'm shocked that the system wasn't upgraded to at least tropical storm status earlier; it was looking rather impressive on satellite. Supportstorm 23:11, March 5, 2012 (UTC) :It still has potential.Allanjeffs 01:57, March 6, 2012 (UTC) ::How is that > not a tropical storm? I agree, Supportstorm, this should have, if briefly, been upgraded to Koji yesterday. For one reason or another, BOM decided it wasn't worth the trouble since it was going to fall apart soon after that. I strongly believe this was at least briefly a depression, if not Koji. Heed my words, this storm is gonna get upgraded in post-season, to some extent, assuming it won't develop now. Ryan1000 18:30, March 6, 2012 (UTC) :::Well it is still producing gales (that is why we have gale warnings on it). Anyway, I have created a track for the system using NRL data here. —''12R. '' 19:05, March 6, 2012 (UTC) ::::Gone.—Cy10 20:25, March 13, 2012 (UTC) South Pacific Region 10F.NONAME Tropical Disturbance 10F And another one...--Cy10-- 13:11, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Its not a depression. RSMC Nadi's TDS' supersede the 3-day outlook. —''12R. '' 15:31, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Yeah its a disturbance not a depression.Allanjeffs 21:03, February 3, 2012 (UTC) Exactly Allan, as 10F's final advisory has just been issued. —''12R. '' 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 10F Now its a depression. —''12R. '' 13:29, February 4, 2012 (UTC) Although the advisory says 25 kts, the gale warning says 35 kts for 10F. This is exactly what happened with 04F too. So this means 04F should have been Cyril and 10F should be Daphne. (Not likely to happen anyways). —''12R. '' 12:08, February 5, 2012 (UTC) And after they reach td status they start weakening right away. Allanjeffs 17:00, February 5, 2012 (UTC) : Gone.--Cy10-- 20:51, February 8, 2012 (UTC) 11F.CYRIL Tropical Disturbance 11F New one here, most likely to be dumped in the bin soon. —''12R. '' 20:51, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Like all of the past disturbances of this year. Allanjeffs 23:25, February 5, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Depression 11F Potential for this depression to become a tropical cyclone is low. —''12R. '' 01:48, February 6, 2012 (UTC) 96P.INVEST Now 96P. —''12R. '' 02:45, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Tropical Cyclone Cyril And its the first homegrown tropical cyclone of the season. —''12R. '' 19:43, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Finally a name storm in this Basin btw Cyril is a male name or female? Allanjeffs 20:39, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Cyril is a male name Allan. Being the latest first storm in the SPac on record, at best, this basin will get to 3-4 storms in total from now on out, excluding Jasmine. Even so, Cyril is only expected to peak as a TS as of now, but based on the looks of this tiny little storm, I wouldn't be surprised if Cyril could explode up to cat 1 or 2 strength before dying out. Ryan1000 22:15, February 6, 2012 (UTC) So we got Cyril after all. Still, I don't see much coming from him. Andrew444TalkBlog 23:19, February 6, 2012 (UTC) It's heading out to sea. Cyril is probably a fish.--Cy10-- 23:20, February 6, 2012 (UTC) Probable will only peak as a weak moderate tropical storm.Allanjeffs 23:56, February 6, 2012 (UTC) It has reached C2 strengh. Now it should be weakening.--Cy10-- 13:17, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Down to a C1 and has moved into TCWC Wellington's AoR. —''12R. '' 19:08, February 7, 2012 (UTC) Ex-TC Cyril Extratropicale —''12R. '' 19:37, February 8, 2012 (UTC) Down and out.Allanjeffs 20:36, February 8, 2012 (UTC) 13F.NONAME Tropical Depression 13F And who thinks this will become Daphne? —''12R. '' 12:34, February 14, 2012 (UTC) Maybe. Depends on how conditions will turn out. 21:55, February 14, 2012 (UTC) I don`t think so.Allanjeffs 21:43, February 15, 2012 (UTC) It's not gonna develop, it's being sheared up now. BTW, the Hall of Fame elections are taking place. If you want to vote on your picks from Eric's list of 2012's hall of famers, or make new suggestions for 2012, go there. Ryan1000 23:44, February 15, 2012 (UTC) Remnants of 13F Gone.--Cy10-- 17:59, February 18, 2012 (UTC) INVEST Not sure where to put this, but it is in the south Pacific atm, off the coast of South America. 1011 mbar. —''12R. '' 11:57, February 16, 2012 (UTC) There never has been a storm recorded in the South Pacific east of 180 degrees west longitude before, and if this one, or if any one, does form in the future, it is unclear how it will be handled. We might as well leave it like this for now. Most of the coast of South America looks clear to me, but I do see one area of disturbed weather that is taking on some tropical charicteristics southwest of Ecuador. No storm has ever been recorded there before. This is a bit bizzare. Ryan1000 23:15, February 16, 2012 (UTC) ::Well the disturbance is located near 10S, and the NHC monitors east of 120W and from 0 degrees to 18.5S. —''12R. '' 23:46, February 16, 2012 (UTC) :::They can monitor it, but my main point was, this still isn't an actual tropical cyclone basin here, like the South Atlantic and Mediterannean. I would be rather baffled if this invest becomes a TS, but if that happens, it will probrably be left as an unnamed storm. It could develop, but I won't count on it now. It lost itself a bit on the latest pic, but it's not gone yet. Ryan1000 00:48, February 17, 2012 (UTC) :::I don`t really think it will form ,but if a miracle occurs and form it will be unnamed I think.Allanjeffs 01:01, February 17, 2012 (UTC) :::How unusual! I didn't think we'd be talking about a Southeastern Pacific invest! Andrew444TalkBlog 01:36, February 21, 2012 (UTC) :::You were a little late andrew.Allanjeffs 02:45, February 21, 2012 (UTC) ::::Yeah, its been gone for quite a while now. —''12R. '' 12:28, February 21, 2012 (UTC)